Because of the turnover in college basketball, it’s pretty well impossible to engineer a game around college players. One year’s sixth man may be next season’s star player. Assessing programs is different however, as they provide more stability. Butler may not challenge for the national title again this year, but there’s reasonable confidence to see them win a couple games in April 2011.

The idea behind this is simple: in early November, a group of players (assembled through goodwill and boredom) will draft ten teams each. You select a team to fill a spot on your roster. Here’s a demo roster:

The five best conferences each get their own slot, then some of the midgrade conferences share a slot, and last are a couple of utility spots to open up access to outliers like Butler and Gonzaga. Or mid-tier big programs, as I expect Georgetown will be next year. Simple enough so far. I’ve also decided that I’ll have to allow adding/dropping, up to a certain point. I’m thinking add-drop will have a deadline of either December 31 or January 31.

A bigger question is points. The league will have to be rotisserie; basketball schedules are inconsistent enough that head-to-head would be impossible. I can either do the league solely based on wins (with nonconference games worth 1 point, conference games worth 2, and structured out like that) or I can do it as a real rotisserie league, based on statistics. (Points, rebounds, assists, etc.)

Based on statistics seems to be the fairest method, and is also true to standard fantasy sports. I think we’ll go this route. Should be easy enough to compile the info from ESPN.

I’ll probably use: Points, rebounds, assists, steals, blocks, turnovers, free throw %, 3 pointers made. I’ve considered more informative categories, like the assist/turnover ratio, but averaging ratios is probably balls. Personal fouls? Kind of want to, but eh. Field goal %? Maybe.

Work in progress.

Villanova and Syracuse spar tomorrow night for the rights to a #1 seed in the tournament. Kansas looks to solidify its position away at Oklahoma St. Tennessee fights to stay relevant with a home game against Kentucky. Georgetown hosts upstart Notre Dame. Texas makes a last-ditch effort to stay ranked and stay above a six-seed on the road at Texas A&M. Northern Iowa hosts Illinois St., BYU hosts New Mexico, and–these are just the ranked games on Saturday. There’s more down the line and more on Sunday.

I can hardly wait.

27 February

• #1 Kansas @ Oklahoma St.
• #2 Kentucky @ #17 Tennessee
• #4 Syracuse vs. #8 Villanova
• #6 Kansas St. vs. #34 Missouri
• #11 BYU vs. #12 New Mexico
• #13 Georgetown vs. Notre Dame
• #22 Northern Iowa vs. Illinois St.
• #23 Texas A&M vs. #21 Texas
• #26 Virginia Tech vs. #28 Maryland
• Northeastern @ George Mason
• California vs. Arizona St.

28 February

• #3 Purdue vs. #14 Michigan St.
• #31 Xavier vs. #24 Richmond
• Florida St. vs. #32 Clemson
• Connecticut vs. Louisville

Our 09/10 season is full of average teams, capped by the better-than-the-rest Kansas and Kentucky. The end of the regular season will be wild, the conference tournaments will be wilder, and I have a feeling the 2010 Tournament might be ridiculous. Largely unpredictable, at any rate.

With this in mind, I’m going to continue to sharpen my mind by making predictions for upcoming games; soon enough, the real deal will be upon us.

24 February

• #3 Purdue at Minnesota
• #11 BYU vs. San Diego St.
• #16 Pittsburgh at Notre Dame
• #18 Temple vs. Dayton
• #21 Texas vs. Oklahoma St.
• #26 Baylor vs. #23 Texas A&M
• #28 Maryland vs. #32 Clemson

If Kentucky loses today and Purdue can get revenge on Ohio St. tomorrow, it’s not unfeasible that the Boilermakers could ascend to #2 in the land next week. I expect Kansas to win out their season (although the tournament and a season-ending away game at Missouri will be tough), so I’m not sure Purdue will make #1. But #2 out of 347 ain’t bad.

William and Mary at George Mason is the match of the year in terms of my heart–my girlfriend’s college against my alma mater. The win is probably more important for W&M; Mason has one shot to go to the dance, and that’s winning the CAA tournament. W&M has a reasonable at-large bid, and it will be bolstered if they can beat Mason today and Iona on Friday (both road games).

16 February 2010

• #2 Kentucky at Mississippi St.
• #22 Baylor vs. Texas Tech
  
• #25 Wake Forest at #26 Virginia Tech
• William and Mary at George Mason
• South Florida vs. Cincinnati
  

Over the last six years, the eventual champion has been ranked in the top six at the beginning of February–this includes the “wild” year of 2006, where no number one seeds made the Final Four (Florida was ranked #6 in the beginning of February).

I still am not sure who I think will win the championship. Taking a look at the top 10 teams, I think the contenders are Kansas, Villanova, Syracuse. I’m on the fence with Duke and Purdue–they have at times looked great, but at times not so great. I’m staunchly against Kentucky, Kansas State, and West Virginia as potential champions. Moreso than most years, the Final Four will be determined by the draw. If Villanova gets to play Kentucky, I’d bet they would win. If they have to play Kansas or Purdue, I’m not so sure.

Anyhow, this isn’t to forecast six weeks from now. This blog is to pick games. Without further ado, here is a look at Monday night’s games and who I think will win.

February 15

• #1 Kansas at #23 Texas A&M
• Connecticut at #3 Villanova
• Virginia at #37 Maryland

November 25

• #7 Duke vs. Arizona State
• #13 Connecticut vs. #36 LSU
• #22 Maryland vs. Wisconsin
• #24 Vanderbilt vs. Arizona
• #28 Gonzaga vs. Cincinnati

November 24

• #3 Texas vs. #37 Pittsburgh
• #22 Maryland vs. Cincinnati
• #31 Florida State vs. #44 Florida
• #28 Gonzaga vs. Wisconsin
• Arizona vs. Colorado

19 of 27.

November 23

• #6 Purdue vs. #11 Tennessee
• #24 Vanderbilt vs. Cincinnati
• #28 Gonzaga vs. Colorado
• #37 Pittsburgh vs. Wichita State
• Arizona vs. Wisconsin

The astuteness of my picks is noted in the red. I suppose that’s what I get for making entirely gut calls and doing no research. Sue me, I was busy! Starting to look like one of my brackets up in here, sheesh. A confidence-building 20 of 31. All right, tomorrow I promise–thirty minutes of research into the day’s match-ups.

Tennessee? Yes. Them crooked Vols. In the last few years, Tennessee has been good but not quite good enough. By that I mean, they’ve had good teams–their 31-win team from 2008 especially–but haven’t managed past the Sweet 16. Ever. Their team this year is solid enough, with NBA talents like Scotty Hopson and Tyler Smith, great size (ever hear of Wayne Chism?) and solid depth (seven players averaging 8+ ppg). All that, mixed with a wide-open national championship field*, and there’s an open door they just need to walk through.

*Yes, wide-open national championship field. The consensus has been that Kansas will take the title, but I’m not ready to give them the trophy. The weakness displayed in a lot of the upper-echelon teams indicates that this isn’t as cut-and-dry as we once thought. Kentucky is young, Michigan State lost a couple of great players, and Kansas may not have enough scoring options. There are openings for teams like Duke, Purdue, and Tennessee. Teams will step forward soon enough, but it’s enough to know right now that the possibility exists.

Since a lot of what’s happening now is tournaments, I’ll have to update as we move along.

November 20

• #4 North Carolina vs. #24 Syracuse
• #6 Villanova vs. #21 Dayton
• #12 California vs. #15 Ohio State
• #19 Georgia Tech vs. George Mason

November 21

• #10 Butler @ Evansville
• #17 Oklahoma @ VCU

November 22 Addendum

Man, can’t believe VCU pulled it out against Oklahoma. The CAA is going to be crazy this year. Mason played three BCS-school teams to the wire and VCU took one out. They’re not even supposed to be the best teams in the conference (Old Dominion is). The three-ball killed Oklahoma: five of twenty-six? Do you guys need glasses?

Anyhow; there’s one really fascinating game tonight. Mississippi versus Villanova. Both teams have solid defense, both teams can score — but Ole Miss has been doing it better so far. ‘Nova hasn’t looked as sharp so far, and I like the Rebels to upset the Wildcats in what should be a very fun Sunday night game.

And big props to Syracuse taking the Coaches vs. Cancer Championship; I’ll try to dissect their victories against Cal and North Carolina tomorrow. I’m 19 of 26–73%. Could be better but not embarrassing.

• #6 Villanova vs. #48 Ole Miss

Our beloved sport picks up in earnest this week, with pretty much everyone seeing some kind of action. North Carolina has already accrued three wins in the time that most teams have played a single game, and their game against Ohio St. this Thursday will be must-see-TV.

The Dayton-Georgia Tech game will be another barn burner, a statement game for either team. Dayton has been on the rise the last couple of seasons, and this season is their opportunity to capitalize on that growing success. A number of their critical players are seniors, and this is their time to shine. Georgia Tech is rife with talented freshman, headlined by Derrick Favors, but their seniors will need to step up and avenge the 12-win campaign last season. This is a tough call, but I like Dayton’s experience over the talent of Tech.

Syracuse is a dangerous game for Cal; the Orange have been playing tough defense, and through two games are making over 50% of their shots. If Syracuse could pull this game out against the Golden Bears, they would shut up people like me who thought they would fall off the map when Johnny Flynn et al ran for the NBA.

November 17

• #47 Memphis @ #1 Kansas
• Arkansas @ #22 Louisville
• #37 Gonzaga @ #2 Michigan St.
• #43 San Diego St. @ #51 St. Mary’s

November 19

• #4 North Carolina @ #15 Ohio St.
• George Mason vs. #6 Villanova
• #21 Dayton vs. #19 Georgia Tech
• #24 Syracuse @ #12 California
• Indiana @ #48 Ole Miss